The Third Front in Indian Polity
There is dissent in the air. Fumes of the dead burning mix with the wails of people lost to oxygen shortage in the covid 19 crises. The burden of not being able to vaccinate the population fast enough and free rests heavily on the shoulders of the Government. To this chorus are added voices that talk about farmer protests in the backdrop of rising fuel prices, loss of income, and the economy at an all-time trough. Narendra Modi for the first time seems fallible. His 56″ claims seem hollow and the clamor to criticize him for the first time is sounding authentic and resonating across the spectrum. Add to this a major loss of face in Bengal elections and Kerala, and it seems the jackals of politics finally seem to be sniffing blood. The Indian polity is rife with talks of the time to sound the call for a change. The congress is crying itself hoarse denouncing the policies of the government and calling out the halo of the Prime Minister. Opposition leaders like Mamata, Stalin, and Udhav are adding their decibels in their own ways to this chorus. But will this lead to any change in the long-term political scape of the country?
A recent meeting in Mumbai has led to its own set of fluttering sentiments. Mr. Sharad Pawar the veteran NCP head, recently played host to poll Strategist and iPAC head Prashant Kishore. Prashant Kishore or PK as he is commonly known is closely associated with TMC supremo Mamata and the meeting takes significance in light of iPACs stellar role in the fortunes of not only the TMC but also Stalin’s DMK in Tamil Nadu in the just-concluded assembly elections. Add to this the involvement with the congress in Punjab to the chief minister Capt Amrinder Singh in an advisory capacity, a lot of dots seem to be joinable in the political canvas. Rumors abounded immediately about the possibility of a third front, i.e. a non-congress non-bjp bloc to form ahead of the hustings call in 2024. As we examine the impact of this meeting and the permutations it suggests we also examine the feasibility and viability of such an effort.
A peek in history is the first step to examine the ramifications of these alliances. India has had only two parties that have been able to lead governments with an absolute majority. The Grand Old Party of Indin Polity the Indian National Congress in its various avatars and The Bharatiya Janata Party are the only two parties that have had the numbers to occupy the treasury benches on their own. There have been other governments that have been formed but each of them has needed the support of either of these two parties as part of a coalition or as outside support. The Janata Party-led government was the first non-congress government but was supported by Jan Sangh the predecessor of the current BJP. The V P Singh-led government was similarly supported by the BJP. All other endeavors, whether that be of Chaudhury Charan Singh, Chandra Sekhar, H D Deve Gowda, or I K Gujral were supported by Congress. We also have had a coalition government by the BJP led NDA, and two terms of the congress Led UPA. In the current parliament, where the congress has been at its worst numbers the GOP holds 52 seats, still the highest numbers even if that be a catastrophic fall in fortunes. What is more relevant is that the congress came runners up in about 200 seats out of the ones that did not come to them. This in itself makes congress a strong contender for being the party to lead the charge in the hustings next time. The caveat being the congress gets its game right. History suggests that India has never had a government that did not involve BJP or Congress. The numbers suggest that the opposition can mount a serious challenge to the BJP, only by rallying around the congress. But….
The two big buts putting spanners in this works are in the form of the aspirations of the regional satraps and the internal dissonance of the congress. And it is in this landscape that the meeting of PK with Pawar becomes significant. Congress today is riddled with a leadership crisis. Stuck between a caretaker head and a reluctant often foot-in-the-mouth leader, the congress is struggling against the well-oiled machinery of the BJP led by the MoSha duo and backed by the RSS. Defeat after defeat in polls is giving a huge beating to the morale of the Congress worker. Coupled with the fact that there is a void in decisive leadership, the congress seems to be drifting like a rudderless ship in choppy waters. Elections in the recently concluded assembly saw congress come second in Kerala and Assam, a wipeout in Bengal and Puducherry, and only in Tamil Nadu some sort of traction, where the role of the congress was of a junior partner. In this perspective looms assembly polls of some major states like Uttar Pradesh, Punjab Manipur Goa Himachal, Uttarakhand, and Gujarat by the end of next year. The performance in these will act as a preview of the congress’ ability to recoup and bounce back ahead of the big fight in 2024. The other major event that will act as testing water for opposition solidarity is the presidential elections in 2022. Rather than the Congress, the TMC or the NCP is better placed to field a candidate that would be acceptable to not just avowed non-BJP parties but also the so-called neutrals, Like SAD, BJD, TRS, YSRC. Such an alignment can seek majority support for a candidate as the BJP might not have the numbers in a collegium where both houses of parliament and all legislative assemblies are represented even if that be proportional representation. This could thus work as a litmus test for the solidarity of the opposition, which is typically riddled with the individual aspirations of the regional parties. A Mayawati is usually at loggerheads with Akhilesh just as the TMC and Left are always on the opposite ends of the polity.
This meeting could lead to a lot of things, as there is no certainty in politics, especially in India where strange bedfellows seem to crop up. But NCP and TMC both of which are parties that have formed as offshoots of the congress and hence the genetics are more similar to the GOP than dissimilar. This could therefore mean a consolidation around the congress in the days to come. However, this meeting could also work as a message to the congress to get its house in order. The strife in Rajasthan and Punjab following how congress lost power in Madhya Pradesh to internal bickering would definitely worry the parties which look to congress to rally around. The void in leadership and the protracted vacillations in trying to sort that out is also sure to give jitters to the congress allies. This meeting could thus be a bugle to all those parties to push the congress into get up and running. And also announce the fact that if the congress is still unable, new permutations are not just possible but also workable with key figures with astute political acumen like Pawar and Didi bound by a strategist worth his salt in PK.
The fact the Pawar was able to cobble the Maha Vikas Agadi to out BJP in Maharashtra established Pawar as a bringer together of the various entities as diametrically opposite as the Shiv Sena and Congress. Similarly, the endorsement that Mamata received from various stakeholders as an anti-BJP force across the political spectrum would strengthen her claim as a binding force for opposition forces. Not just the parties like AAP, SP, and RLD, but even congress allies like RJD, DMK, JMM, and NCP supported Mamata against the BJP. Even Farmer protest leader Rakesh Tikait was seen campaigning for her against the BJP. Against this backdrop, if congress is able to perform well in the ballot boxes in the coming elections, the possibility of a strong challenge to BJP would indeed be a very concrete possibility. The role of Congress as the leader of such an alliance would also be cemented. However, if the performance of congress is not so good then either of two possibilities emerges. Congress cedes more space to the regional parties but maintains its position as the leader of the coalition. Else it abdicates from its position completely and lends outside support as it has done in the past to an allied third front alternative. Historically, however, such arrangements have been fragile at best.
The coming months are pregnant with possibilities. The meeting between PK and Pawar has been succeeded by one of the other leaders of the non-congress non-BJP spectrum in Delhi led by TMC’s Yashwant Sinha and NCP’s Pawar. As the canvass evolves, more possibilities will emerge. The role of the GOP and how it manages itself in the short and long run will be of great interest to all political pundits. Will it be able to reorganize and reinvent itself in time to bear the mantle of the charge, or will it slowly sink into oblivion as new players emerge. As of now the congress still seems integral to the fortunes of the opposition. But what time holds is only for time to reveal at her fickle convenience.
